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Depleting Shadow Inventory, Florida Keys Real Estate Sales and Listings

Monday, January 20, 2014   /   by Lela Ashkarian

Depleting Shadow Inventory, Florida Keys Real Estate Sales and Listings

Rising mortgage rates will tame the enthusiasm of some homebuyers. But the lack of choice when choosing a home will also hinder buying. Inventory levels are already very low. Newly constructed home inventory is essentially at a 50-year low. Existing home inventory is hovering at a 13-year low. Increases from housing starts will bring more inventory to the market. But the current production of little over a million is not sufficient. Another quick ramp up of around 40 to 50 percent is needed to adequately supply the market. Another source of potential inventory is from homes where mortgages have not been paid or the home is already in the foreclosure process though not yet cleanly released from all the paperwork. How is this so-called shadow inventory trending? The table below shows the shadow inventory situation for all 50 states. It shows the current as well as peak distressed conditions. The data is also overlaid with home price trends to help gauge where shadow would be most useful. Naturally, fast price appreciating markets such as California and Nevada would like to have more inventory, but the shadows in these states have been greatly depleted. California’s shadow has been slashed by 71 percent while Nevada cut its future distressed homes by 59 percent. At the other end, slow price appreciating states have no need for additional supply. Yet, states like New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut have barely dented their shadow and these distressed homes still loom over the market. These states have only reduced their shadow by around 10 percent from the peak condition. Take a look at your state’s condition after the jump. Continue reading »



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Florida Keys Market Condition


Florida Keys Real Estate Market


The Florida Keys Real Estate Market


  • # Of Sales increased 16% to 2,601
  • Average sales price increased 6% to $443,000
  • Dollar value of sales increased 23% to $1.15 billion
  • The sale price to list price ratio increased to 83% of original list price and 92% of final list price leaving a 17% margin from original list price to an 8% margin from final list price.
  • Average days on market fell 7% to 247 days.
  • Pending sales increased 21% to 2,681- the highest level recorded.
  • The number of properties listed for sale declined by 12% to 2,772.
  • Only 6% of all listed properties and 4% of all sales in the 4th quarter were distressed.


 The Coldwell Banker Schmitt (CBSREC) Company:     #1 Keyswide


  • o CBSREC sales increased 19% to 23.7% of all sales Keyswide
  • o CBSREC dollar volume of sales increased 20.5% to $482 million
  • o CBSREC listing market share increased to 26% of all listings Keyswide
  • o #1 company for sales of $1 million properties from 2008-2013 with 18% market share.




  • o 4 CBSREC Offices outside of Key West
    • § #1 Overall
    • § One third of the listings, 28% of the sales and 26.5% of the dollar volume of sales, more than next 3 companies who have a combined total of 9 offices.


  • o Middle Keys: #1 Office in the Market
    • § Over ½ of all listings
    • § 37.5% of all sales
    • § 34.1% of the dollar volume

    • o Lower Keys:  #1 Office in the Market
      • § Over 1/3 of all listings
      • § 36% of all sales
      • § 38% of the dollar volume


  • o Key West:      #1 Office-Number of Sales in Key West  
    • § 8.7% of all listings
    • § 13.1% of all sales
    • § 11.0% of the dollar volume


  • o Upper Keys    #2 – (Soon to be #1 again)
    • § 18.2% of all listings
    • § 16.8% of all sales
    • § 16.4% of the dollar volume

**Number 1 company is combined Century 21, Prudential & Better Homes and Gardens, which continues to lose market share since mergers 3 years ago as we continue to increase.