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The Florida Keys real estate market in early 2025 is defined by shifting trends and a cautious outlook, shaped by both local and national economic factors. Key market indicators such as the number of sales, average sale price, days on market, and active listings have aligned with earlier predictions of a declining market. This trend is characterized by more sellers entering the market, fewer buyers, and longer marketing times, contributing to a gradual decrease in overall sale prices.

During the first quarter of 2025, residential sales across the Keys were down 5.8%, with the Lower Keys being the only submarket to post a gain. The Middle Keys experienced a 13% decline, while the Upper Keys and Key West also decreased. Despite the overall drop in sales, the Middle Keys managed a 10% increase in average sale price, highlighting the mixed nature of the market. Active listings rose 20% Keys-wide, with every area posting gains, signaling an increasing supply that is not being matched by demand.

The land sector has faced particular volatility due to legislative uncertainty regarding building permit allocations. Recent legislative changes now allow for 90 new home permits per year across the Keys, about one-third of the previous annual allocation, which has further constrained new development and contributed to a 24% drop in vacant land sales.
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Marketing times have also increased, with the average days on market up 20% year over year for all property types. Properties in the $2 million to $4 million range have seen the most significant increases in time on market, while those listed at $5 million or higher have sold more quickly. The average sale price for the 396 properties sold in Q1 2025 was $1,315,166, with a median of $950,000.

Despite these challenges, Coldwell Banker Schmitt Real Estate Company has maintained its position as a leading brokerage, being ranked among the top 500 real estate companies nationally. Their continued success is attributed to a focus on professionalism, market expertise, and client service, which remains crucial in navigating the complexities of the current market climate. As the Keys move further into 2025, the prevailing expectation is for continued declines in both sales and prices, with an overall shift toward lower price ranges and longer marketing times.